Computing the Future of Work

Computers are changing our jobs but this new technology will not work out for all of us

It seems as if computers have changed everything. Some of the biggest changes have been at the workplace, as we move from a world in which we gathered together to operate machinery in factories, to sitting in the office (or elsewhere) tapping away on computers by ourselves. The effects of this go beyond what we do at work to also impact to how much we might be paid and where we might work. While a positive for many, these developments will not bring about a brighter future for everyone.

For starters, computers have changed the things that we produce on the job. Rather than physical objects that are produced, unit by unit, at one specific location, work on computers tend to be easy replicated and can be made available anywhere. These characteristics mean that output from computers has the potential to be more valuable as it can be easily delivered to multiple potential customers. One of the results of this is that workers will, in general, be paid more for work done in a digital format.

Along with the output being less about the physical, work with computers itself is also less physical. Traditional jobs in agriculture or manufacturing relied on a certain amount of physical strength and dexterity, and the machinery involves in these jobs were a complement these types of tasks. Computers, on the other hand, act as an aid to mental tasks, requiring different skills and also favouring some type of workers over others. Computer, in the same manner as every other new technology, produces benefits for society that are not even shard out.

Another difference to the past is how much computers also free up workers to realise more of their individual talents. This is because work itself is more individualistic in nature. Work is just one among many activities, which we would have done in the company with others, such as watching TV, are now done on our own. Whether working in the fields or in a factory, we have, in the past, relied on the help of others to get the job done. As much as office workers might email or message other, much of the work itself is carried out by one person using one computer.

The ease of using computer to share output means that people can increasing focus of niche tasks. Increasing the degree of specialization (focusing on specific roles) is a common means to boost productivity and some of these gains can be captured by the workers in terms of higher wages.  Previously, workers would have to gather in one location and share out different tasks to capture the productivity improvements of specialization. But now computers mean that individual tasks can be parcelled out to workers irrespective of their location. Digital work can then be produced across a global production line on a scale far bigger than even the largest factories.

As is the case with any economic change, the benefits are not spread out evenly. One reason for this is that mental abilities are likely to vary more than physical performance. Differences in physical attributes were normally not sufficient to generate wide variation in the value of labour. A stronger person could manage more work, but the extra labour was not valued enough to result in significant differences in wages. As computers extend cognitive capacities, existing differences balloon into vastly difference outcomes at the workplace. As a result, the smart can become rich in a way that the strong never could.  Add in the other features of more valuable output, less dependence on others, and greater specialization means that talented individuals have the potential to earn vastly more than others.

Not only do computers open up the earnings potential of the clever, computers also seem to limit the skills of other workers. This is because the ease with which computers can be used have resulted in many tasks being simplified. Previously, jobs would allow workers to build up skills that would feed through into greater productivity and higher wages. For example, working in a factory would involve operating machinery that took time to master. Computers, on the other hand, increase output without the need for workers to build up skills. By being so easy to use, it is as if the technology is hidden away so that workers themselves miss out benefiting from the productivity gains.

The simplified nature of work means that the workers themselves can be easily interchanged. Think of those working on a cash register in a supermarket which has long been computerised with scanners and barcodes. The task has become so simplified that even the customers are now doing it themselves. Even the computers themselves are unimportant and are replaced every few years. In this way, economic change is becoming even more daunting as both technology at work and skills we build up on the job can be made worthless with a time frame of a few years.

All technological advancements involve winners and losers. The big difference is that those already at an advantage are benefiting even more with the less well-off likely to struggle. There is unlikely to be any respite as further technological developments such as AI will erode the value of computer work itself. As with automation in manufacturing, computing technology will increasingly eliminate the simpler tasks. Amid these developments, education will obviously take on greater importance but the rapid pace of change mean that many will fall behind. And, what will happen when computers are smarter than us at everything?